Practitioners and theorists of international relations are both confronted to a challenge, that is becoming more and more important. Predicting the future has always been one of the goals and constrains of the “art of politics”. Since the early Greeks who established rules on what should be the role of “oracles” to prediction companies and […]

investors’ risk appetite and global financial market conditions – IMF working paper Investors Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market conditions 1 Investors Risk Appetite and … 2 Investors Risk Appetite and … 3 The USES & ABUSES sovereign credit ratings – IMF paper afsr-201010-3-sovereign_ratings imf global stability1 gfsr-201010-3-sovereign_ratings imf global stability2 Sovereign credit rating CRITERIA […]

FOCUS 1.1 MISE EN PERSPECTIVE AVEC LES ÉVOLUTIONS RÉGLEMENTAIRES   1. Un premier recours aux notations en pleine dépression des années 1930 –          11 Septembre 1931 : 1ère réglementation intégrant les agences de notation à l’initiative de l’OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, principale instance de réglementation américaine à l’époque) Toute banque américaine doit […]

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Academics, scientists, intellectuals? Wendell Bell Nick Bostrom Robin Hanson Futurists’ Social Networks The Earth Policy Institute The DaVinci Institute The Foundation for the Future Institute for the Future (IFTF) The Long Now Foundation

What kind of knowledge? Against Linearity Science or Intuition? Foxes or Hedgehogs? A technique? The Delphi method Google From which discipline? History Information Markets Management Studies Nobel Economics Sociology Futures as a field?

Who are they? How do you measure their reputation? Are there likely to be heard because they have a good reputation? Or vice versa? James Bellini Robert Brechter Ian Bremmer Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Lester Brown Joshua Cooper Ramo George Friedman (Stratfor) Johan Galtung Edward Hugh Bertrand de Jouvenel Heman Kahn Ray Kurzweil Jeremy Rivkin […]

Futures market are a recent phenomenon related to the spread of the internet. Betting online becomes a predictive tool. They are based on an interdisciplinary mode of thinking, as developed in institution design. This model also lies on the idea of “collective intelligence” that was made popular by the book of James Surowiecki. There are […]

The Greeks, the Romans, the Egyptians or the Etruscans used oracles as as go-between, they would reveal the Gods’ intentions to the mortals. Oracles performed other diverse roles which were highly contextualized, they are one of the finest examples of the many imbrications of power and knowledge. Augustin Bouché-Leclerc, Histoire de la divination dans l’antiquité, […]

Those who want to predict what the world’s future will be are engaged in a debate on the future of US power. The recent NIC 2025 report has predicted a decline of the US as a superpower and the enpowerment of countries such as China and India. In 2009 Johan Galtung has predicted the fall […]

Forecasting is a flourishing business. Consultants, experts, academics, intellectuals are on the global market of predictions. They are consulted by governmental agencies as well as by private companies. Association of Professional Futurists Center for Future Studies Center for Preventive Action (CFR) Conflict Forecasting Consensus Point Decide BV Decision Insights Forecasting International Foresight-UK Foresight-Horizon Scanning Center […]