Academics, scientists, intellectuals? Wendell Bell Nick Bostrom Robin Hanson Futurists’ Social Networks The Earth Policy Institute The DaVinci Institute The Foundation for the Future Institute for the Future (IFTF) The Long Now Foundation

What kind of knowledge? Against Linearity Science or Intuition? Foxes or Hedgehogs? A technique? The Delphi method Google From which discipline? History Information Markets Management Studies Nobel Economics Sociology Futures as a field?

Who are they? How do you measure their reputation? Are there likely to be heard because they have a good reputation? Or vice versa? James Bellini Robert Brechter Ian Bremmer Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Lester Brown Joshua Cooper Ramo George Friedman (Stratfor) Johan Galtung Edward Hugh Bertrand de Jouvenel Heman Kahn Ray Kurzweil Jeremy Rivkin […]

Futures market are a recent phenomenon related to the spread of the internet. Betting online becomes a predictive tool. They are based on an interdisciplinary mode of thinking, as developed in institution design. This model also lies on the idea of “collective intelligence” that was made popular by the book of James Surowiecki. There are […]

The Greeks, the Romans, the Egyptians or the Etruscans used oracles as as go-between, they would reveal the Gods’ intentions to the mortals. Oracles performed other diverse roles which were highly contextualized, they are one of the finest examples of the many imbrications of power and knowledge. Augustin Bouché-Leclerc, Histoire de la divination dans l’antiquité, […]

Those who want to predict what the world’s future will be are engaged in a debate on the future of US power. The recent NIC 2025 report has predicted a decline of the US as a superpower and the enpowerment of countries such as China and India. In 2009 Johan Galtung has predicted the fall […]

Forecasting is a flourishing business. Consultants, experts, academics, intellectuals are on the global market of predictions. They are consulted by governmental agencies as well as by private companies. Association of Professional Futurists Center for Future Studies Center for Preventive Action (CFR) Conflict Forecasting Consensus Point Decide BV Decision Insights Forecasting International Foresight-UK Foresight-Horizon Scanning Center […]

Science fiction, social science, or science? Political gaming, a longstanding tradition. Why did the FutureMap Program was abandonned? Predictions about WMDs. Predictions and technology: DARPA. An air strike against Iran by the end of 2001 (intrade)?

Forecasting is based on applied knowledge, grounded in the various branches of hard sciences or social sciences. The knowledge of forecasting is of two sorts. It either comes from a specific existing discipline or it is grounded on a theory of anticipations that crosses the boundaries of established academic disciplines. Boston University Pardee Center Copenhagen […]