investors’ risk appetite and global financial market conditions – IMF working paper Investors Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market conditions 1 Investors Risk Appetite and … 2 Investors Risk Appetite and … 3 The USES & ABUSES sovereign credit ratings – IMF paper afsr-201010-3-sovereign_ratings imf global stability1 gfsr-201010-3-sovereign_ratings imf global stability2 Sovereign credit rating CRITERIA […]

FOCUS 1.1 MISE EN PERSPECTIVE AVEC LES ÉVOLUTIONS RÉGLEMENTAIRES   1. Un premier recours aux notations en pleine dépression des années 1930 –          11 Septembre 1931 : 1ère réglementation intégrant les agences de notation à l’initiative de l’OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, principale instance de réglementation américaine à l’époque) Toute banque américaine doit […]

What kind of knowledge? Against Linearity Science or Intuition? Foxes or Hedgehogs? A technique? The Delphi method Google From which discipline? History Information Markets Management Studies Nobel Economics Sociology Futures as a field?

Who are they? How do you measure their reputation? Are there likely to be heard because they have a good reputation? Or vice versa? James Bellini Robert Brechter Ian Bremmer Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Lester Brown Joshua Cooper Ramo George Friedman (Stratfor) Johan Galtung Edward Hugh Bertrand de Jouvenel Heman Kahn Ray Kurzweil Jeremy Rivkin […]

Credit Rating Agencies express “opinions” on the capacity of companies, local actors such as municipalities or governments to honor their debts. They act as “reputational intermediaries” and their opinion can be interpreted as a forecast. The June 14th conference at Ceri will discuss their role. We plan on organizing a seminar at Sciences Po, who […]

Practitioners and theorists of international relations are both confronted to a challenge, that is becoming more and more important. Predicting the future has always been one of the goals and constrains of the “art of politics”. Since the early Greeks who established rules on what should be the role of “oracles” to prediction companies and […]