Futures market are a recent phenomenon related to the spread of the internet. Betting online becomes a predictive tool. They are based on an interdisciplinary mode of thinking, as developed in institution design. This model also lies on the idea of “collective intelligence” that was made popular by the book of James Surowiecki. There are […]

Those who want to predict what the world’s future will be are engaged in a debate on the future of US power. The recent NIC 2025 report has predicted a decline of the US as a superpower and the enpowerment of countries such as China and India. In 2009 Johan Galtung has predicted the fall […]

Science fiction, social science, or science? Political gaming, a longstanding tradition. Why did the FutureMap Program was abandonned? Predictions about WMDs. Predictions and technology: DARPA. An air strike against Iran by the end of 2001 (intrade)?

Practitioners and theorists of international relations are both confronted to a challenge, that is becoming more and more important. Predicting the future has always been one of the goals and constrains of the “art of politics”. Since the early Greeks who established rules on what should be the role of “oracles” to prediction companies and […]