Science fiction, social science, or science? Political gaming, a longstanding tradition. Why did the FutureMap Program was abandonned? Predictions about WMDs. Predictions and technology: DARPA. An air strike against Iran by the end of 2001 (intrade)?

Forecasting is based on applied knowledge, grounded in the various branches of hard sciences or social sciences. The knowledge of forecasting is of two sorts. It either comes from a specific existing discipline or it is grounded on a theory of anticipations that crosses the boundaries of established academic disciplines. Boston University Pardee Center Copenhagen […]

Credit Rating Agencies express “opinions” on the capacity of companies, local actors such as municipalities or governments to honor their debts. They act as “reputational intermediaries” and their opinion can be interpreted as a forecast. The June 14th conference at Ceri will discuss their role. We plan on organizing a seminar at Sciences Po, who […]

Practitioners and theorists of international relations are both confronted to a challenge, that is becoming more and more important. Predicting the future has always been one of the goals and constrains of the “art of politics”. Since the early Greeks who established rules on what should be the role of “oracles” to prediction companies and […]