Praxis

Forecasting is a political, social and cultural practice. It has multiple origins and has significant policy and economic implications. This web explores the various aspects of the new practices of forecasting. It highlights the role of knowledge as a tool for practitioners.

Theory and praxis are strongly interdependent. New practices bring into light new forms of knowledge they contribute to develop, as the case of futures markets testify. The coherence, validity and efficiency for policy-making of these models can be put into question, as in the case of the financial model such as the Black-Scholes-Merton model. Knowledge and ideas do orient new forms of interests, The use of computer science and Rational Choice models of analysis would change the way foreign policy is made, it would transform the definition of interest, reinforcing a definition of interest strongly rooted in utilitarianism. Sociologists of finance such as MacKenzie argue that economics is performative and therefore its ideas do construct interests in the financial world.

From a global perspective, this web brings elements of discussion that converge in analysis of the social functions of integration of predictions. It will search for the links between predictors and the communities of beliefs and interests they, willingly or not, create.