Designing the future: the role of esthetics and arts

7 August 2010 par ARIEL Colonomos

Ark Inc The Power of 8 Superflux

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What is a futurist?

23 February 2010 par ARIEL Colonomos

Academics, scientists, intellectuals? Wendell Bell Nick Bostrom Robin Hanson Futurists’ Social Networks The Earth Policy Institute The DaVinci Institute The Foundation for the Future Institute for the Future (IFTF) The Long Now Foundation

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Forecasting as Knowledge?

6 February 2010 par ARIEL Colonomos

What kind of knowledge? Against Linearity Science or Intuition? Foxes or Hedgehogs? A technique? The Delphi method Google From which discipline? History Information Markets Management Studies Nobel Economics Sociology Futures as a field?

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Predictors as Gurus

5 February 2010 par ARIEL Colonomos

Who are they? How do you measure their reputation? Are there likely to be heard because they have a good reputation? Or vice versa? James Bellini Robert Brechter Ian Bremmer Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Lester Brown Joshua Cooper Ramo George Friedman (Stratfor) Johan Galtung Edward Hugh Bertrand de Jouvenel Heman Kahn Ray Kurzweil Jeremy Rivkin […]

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Futures Market

4 February 2010 par ARIEL Colonomos

Futures market are a recent phenomenon related to the spread of the internet. Betting online becomes a predictive tool. They are based on an interdisciplinary mode of thinking, as developed in institution design. This model also lies on the idea of “collective intelligence” that was made popular by the book of James Surowiecki. There are […]

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Forecasters as Epistemic Communities

3 February 2010 par ARIEL Colonomos

Forecasting is based on applied knowledge, grounded in the various branches of hard sciences or social sciences. The knowledge of forecasting is of two sorts. It either comes from a specific existing discipline or it is grounded on a theory of anticipations that crosses the boundaries of established academic disciplines. Boston University Pardee Center Copenhagen […]

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Predictions in International Affairs

21 January 2010 par Communication scientifique

Practitioners and theorists of international relations are both confronted to a challenge, that is becoming more and more important. Predicting the future has always been one of the goals and constrains of the “art of politics”. Since the early Greeks who established rules on what should be the role of “oracles” to prediction companies and […]

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